Beijing, December 22 (Wang Mengyao) - The 2024 China Steel Demand Forecast released by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute shows that the decline in China's steel demand will slow down next year.

On the same day, Xiao Bangguo, Vice President of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, stated that China's steel consumption is expected to reach 890 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, based on two prediction methods: the comprehensive steel consumption coefficient method and the downstream industry consumption method; It is expected that the demand for steel in China will be 875 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%.

Based on a comprehensive analysis of the economic operation, investment scale, and product output of downstream industries, Xiao Bangguo pointed out that in 2023, the demand for steel in industries such as machinery, automobiles, energy, shipbuilding, and household appliances in China is showing an increasing trend, while the demand for steel in industries such as construction, hardware products, railways, steel and wood furniture, bicycles, motorcycles, and containers is decreasing. It is predicted that the demand for steel in China will slightly decrease in 2023, but with future policy support, It is expected that the slowdown in China's steel demand will slow down in 2024.

Specifically, the industries that are expected to see a rapid increase in steel demand in 2024 are: shipbuilding with a year-on-year growth of 16.0%, container with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, energy with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, automobiles with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, household appliances with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, and machinery with a year-on-year growth of 0.6%;

The industries that are expected to see a rapid decline in steel demand in 2024 are as follows: construction decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, hardware products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, bicycles and motorcycles decreased by 2.0% year-on-year, and railways decreased by 2.0% year-on-year; Steel and wood furniture decreased by 1.2% year-on-year.

"The construction industry accounts for over 50% of steel consumption and is a key core factor in determining next year's demand," said Guan Zhijie, Deputy Chief Engineer of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, in response to a question from China News Network.

According to estimates, the steel consumption demand in China's construction industry is expected to be about 506 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. In 2024, the country will continue to adjust and optimize real estate policies, accelerate the promotion of the "three major projects", and maintain a high scale of special bonds; However, due to the drag of real estate and the continuity of projects already started, and considering the gradual landing of additional treasury bond in the fourth quarter of this year, it is estimated that the steel consumption demand of China's construction industry in 2024 will be about 486 million tons, down 4.0% year on year. (End)